The ongoing geopolitical tensions — particularly the US/Israel–Iran conflict — are fueling global price hikes, worsening supply chain disruptions, and triggering serious macroeconomic imbalances. For The Gambia, this translates into rising fuel costs, imported inflation, and mounting economic hardship. These challenges demand urgent, collective thinking and bold fiscal management.
The Central Bank recently announced reserves of over $500 million. Could part of this be drawn down — at least one or two months’ import cover — to inject liquidity into the market and strengthen the Dalasi against the Dollar? This would ease fuel pricing pressures and stabilize commodity imports, helping us maintain single-digit inflation. We’ve seen similar interventions before, when millions of Dollars were given to businessmen to stabilize prices. Were those funds repaid, or were they grants? Likewise, what became of the Mega Bank loan guaranteed by the Ministry of Finance? These contingent liabilities matter, as defaults ultimately fall back on government.
Looking at the 2026 budget, the numbers are sobering. GRA’s revenue target is 27 billion Dalasis. Debt service alone consumes 13 billion, while salaries and allowances take another 10 billion. That’s 23 billion gone before accounting for education, health, fuel, travel, and other statutory expenditures. Without grants or external budget support, the remainder must be borrowed domestically — worsening our debt stock, which has already ballooned from 23 billion to 48 billion in nine years.
So where are fuel subsidies really coming from? Likely domestic borrowing — a Mandinka adage comes to mind: Bou ku sumunala (“washing faeces with urine”). It is not prudent. The same applies to infrastructure projects, which are often claimed to be funded from tax revenues, but in reality rely heavily on borrowing.
We must urgently revisit fiscal management. Budget cuts are unavoidable. Beyond that, government should explore mobilizing dormant resources: balances from closed project accounts, proceeds from Japanese rice sales, or funds from microfinance schemes like the small ruminant project. These could be redirected to strengthen the budget. Additionally, repealing certain acts could allow government to reclaim funds sitting idle in agencies.
The debt trajectory is alarming. Domestic debt stood at 47 billion Dalasis in 2016; by 2024, public debt could exceed 140 billion. Debt service in 2026 is 13 billion, mostly legacy loans. But from 2027 onward, repayments on post-2017 loans will begin, adding over 100 billion to the burden. The math is simple but devastating: can GRA mobilize enough revenue to cover this? Without grants or relief, the risk of default looms large.
This is the “big elephant in the room.” If unchecked, it could lead to economic collapse, worsening poverty, and a bleak future for our youth. With UTG graduating over 1,500 students annually, where will opportunities come from if fiscal mismanagement continues? Leaders must act with conscience, honesty, and foresight. The oath we swear is to serve the people — not to mortgage their future.
The time for business-as-usual is over. Fiscal discipline is not optional; it is our only lifeline.
Author: Mr Lamin Camara, Former Finance Permanent Secretary
