According to a study by the Research Unit of the ECOWAS Parliament, nearly 32 million people could be displaced internally in West Africa by 2050 without urgent climate action. The study quoted this prediction from the World Bank.
The study paper was presented on Wednesday, 23rd September 2026, at the ongoing seminar on climate change organized by the ECOWAS Parliament in Ghana.
The study defines climate change, quoting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: “Climate change is defined as a change in the state of the climate that can be recognized by alterations in the variability of its properties, persisting over an extended period, typically decades or longer, and directly or indirectly attributable to human activities that modify the composition of the earth’s atmosphere.”
The paper examines the climate context in West Africa, exploring the intricate connections among climate change, environmental degradation, population displacement, and insecurity. It also presents adaptation and mitigation measures with examples of locally led initiatives and concludes with recommendations for parliamentary action. In doing so, it seeks to equip legislators with the evidence base needed to translate the region’s climate commitments into concrete parliamentary action beyond this seminar.
According to the study, climate change constitutes one of the most significant and complex challenges facing humanity in the twenty-first century, with particularly severe implications for the ECOWAS region and wider West Africa.
The study shows that for West Africa and the ECOWAS region, these global trends manifest with particularly acute effects due to the region’s geographical vulnerability, limited adaptive capacity, and high dependence on climate-sensitive sectors such as rain-fed agriculture, fisheries, and pastoralism. Consequently, the region is experiencing increasing environmental degradation, unprecedented population displacement, and rising insecurity, all of which are intimately linked to climate change.
Climate Change and Environmental Degradation in the ECOWAS Region
The study indicates that environmental degradation in West Africa is both a catalyst and an outcome of climate change, perpetuating a vicious cycle that erodes the region’s natural resource base and the livelihoods that depend on it.
It highlights the Lake Chad region, encompassing Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, as a vivid example. Lake Chad serves as a crucial, life-sustaining ecosystem and water reservoir for approximately 45–50 million individuals, affected by a confluence of climate change, rapid population growth, poverty, food insecurity, and security threats.
“The region is highly susceptible to the rapid progression of climate change, which amplifies the risks of unpredictable weather events and less consistent seasonal weather patterns, adversely affecting livelihoods that rely on natural resources and rainfall,” the study reveals.
This underscores the urgency of coordinated, basin-wide governance, since unilateral national responses are ill-suited to managing a shared and rapidly shrinking water body.
Understanding Climate Change: Global Context and West African Realities
The study explains that evidence of climate change is increasingly evident on a global scale. In 2025, the global mean temperature was 1.39°C and 1.47°C above the average for 1850–1900, making it one of the warmest years documented to date.
“In 2024, concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide attained record levels of 423.9 parts per million, 1942 parts per billion, and 338.0 parts per billion, respectively. Ocean warming has also more than doubled since the period 1960–2005, with ocean heat content reaching an all-time high in 2025,” it says.
In Africa, 2025 was among the third to seventh warmest years on record, with terrestrial temperatures exceeding the 1991–2020 average by 0.51°C. Since 1991, the rate of warming has surpassed that of the previous three-decade intervals, with North Africa warming at 0.43°C per decade.
“Notable warming trends are also observed across West, Central, East, and Southern Africa,” the study discloses.
Furthermore, sea-level rise along African coasts from 1999 to 2025 exceeded the global average of 3.6 mm per year, reaching about 4.2 mm per year along the Atlantic coast, 5.2 mm per year along the Indian Ocean coast, and 5.6 mm per year in the Red Sea. This is coupled with persistent ocean acidification, with record-low surface pH in 2025, impacting marine ecosystems, habitats, and biodiversity.
While desertification is accelerating in the Sahel—eating up farmland, blocking irrigation and transport routes, and forcing changes in livelihoods—deforestation often results from displacement.
Climate Change and Population Displacement
“Displacement in the ECOWAS region is driven by multiple, often interconnected, conflict- and climate-related hazards, including flooding and drought. The World Bank predicts nearly 32 million people could be displaced internally in West Africa by 2050, without urgent climate action,” says the study.
The Lake Chad region is at a tipping point, with over 3.53 million people displaced and 8.2 million in need of humanitarian aid. From January 2024 to April 2026, security incidents rose by about 80%, while between September 2025 and May 2026, there were over 1,798 incidents and 5,700 fatalities, plus 71,500 new arrivals in border areas in 2026.
Climate Change and Insecurity
The study states that the relationship between climate change and insecurity in the ECOWAS region operates through multiple interconnected pathways.
It describes climate change as a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and tensions by undermining livelihoods, driving migration and mobility, empowering armed actors, and deepening political and economic grievances.
Erratic rainfall, desertification, drought, and flooding weaken farming, fishing, herding, and small trade, which sustain most of the population in the ECOWAS region. The agricultural sector employs 60% of the active workforce, providing 290 million jobs, making it the largest employer.
Extremist groups partly rely on the region’s natural resource economy. Conflicts in Lake Chad are linked to insurgents exploiting these resources, funded through food, trade, tax, and extortion of farmers, fishers, and pastoralists.
“A typical example is the Islamic State – West Africa Province (ISWAP), which reportedly earns over US$191 million annually, mainly from taxes on fishing communities and livestock owners on the islands of Lake Chad,” the study notes.
These groups infiltrate the natural resource economy, including artisanal mining, wood and charcoal production, and wildlife trafficking, forcing local communities to cut trees, hunt animals, and graze cattle in open woodland areas.
Adaptation and Mitigation Measures, Including Climate Financing
The study indicates that addressing the impact of climate change in the ECOWAS region requires comprehensive adaptation and mitigation measures, backed by accessible climate financing.
It adds that the region has frameworks such as the 1998 Transhumance Regulation, which governs seasonal herder and livestock migration across borders to reduce tensions with farmers. However, this regulation faces challenges such as poor border management, limited cooperation among member states, weak institutions, low community awareness, and a lack of political will.
Strengthening this framework, including through harmonized enforcement mechanisms and dedicated funding for cross-border monitoring, would help convert an existing regional instrument into a more effective tool for managing climate-driven mobility.
Additionally, the region’s climate finance strategy estimates that US$294 billion is required, reflecting increased needs in Member States’ second-generation Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
The study recommends the following to address the menace of climate change:
- Strengthen legislative frameworks for climate action
- Enhance oversight of climate policy implementation
- Prioritize climate finance and budget scrutiny
- Support climate-resilient livelihoods and youth empowerment
- Mainstream climate security in national policies
- Strengthen regional and transboundary cooperation
“Climate change poses an immediate threat to the ECOWAS region, worsening degradation, displacement, insecurity, and hindering development. The Lake Chad Basin exemplifies this crisis, with over 3.53 million displaced and 8.2 million in need of aid,” the study concludes.
